300 pts
Season Total · Week 1 complete (24/24)
CFB Week 1
24
Georgia (#3) vs Tennessee State
Won 63-3.
23
Texas A&M (#8) vs Missouri State
Won 50-0.
22
Missouri (#25) vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Won 54-14 -- Simmons threw 4 TDs in his debut.
21
Texas Tech (#12) vs Abilene Christian
Won 33-10.
20
Alabama (#13) vs East Carolina
Won 48-14.
19
Texas (#5) vs Texas State
Won 59-7.
18
BYU (#14) vs Utah Tech
Won 63-7 -- Bachmeier threw 3 first-half TDs.
17
Oklahoma (#10) vs UTEP
Won 51-0 -- total shutout.
16
Ohio State (#1) vs Ball State
Won 56-3.
15
Indiana (#6) vs North Texas
Won 52-16.
14
Penn State (#18) vs Marshall
Won 45-0.
13
Tennessee (#20) vs Furman
Won 56-9.
12
Iowa (#22) vs Northern Illinois
Won 40-0.
11
Michigan (#16) vs Western Michigan
Won 13-12 on a 47-yard Hail Mary as time expired -- after officials put one second back on the clock following a first failed attempt.
10
Oregon (#2) vs Boise State
Won 34-27 -- trailed 17-7 at half as a 24.5-point favorite before a 62-yard TD catch gave Oregon the lead for good with 7:51 left.
9
USC (#14) vs Fresno State
Won 39-0 -- total shutout.
8
Utah (#21) vs Idaho
Won 66-14 -- Devon Dampier and the Utes cruised.
7
Houston (#23) vs Oregon State
Won 27-24 in OT -- had to survive a late push.
6
Washington (#17) vs Washington State
Huskies covered as the clear favorite, 24-10 — no drama in the Apple Cup.
5
Notre Dame (#4) vs Wisconsin
Irish rolled Wisconsin 41-13, never in doubt.
4
Florida State vs SMU (#19)
Mustangs won it 27-24 on the road — exactly the upset-caliber game we flagged as a genuine coin-flip.
3
LSU (#11) vs Clemson
Won 51-10.
2
Ole Miss (#9) vs Louisville (#24)
Rebels survived 41-38 — Louisville made this a lot closer than the confidence points suggested.
1
Stanford vs Miami (#7)
Won 45-6 -- Miami dominated on the road.
96 pts
Season Total · NFL Week 1 upcoming
NFL Week 1
16
Jacksonville vs Cleveland
Won 34-10.
15
Detroit vs New Orleans
Survived 31-30 -- much closer than expected.
14
Philadelphia vs Washington
Won 24-22 -- Washington made it a real game.
13
Cincinnati vs Tampa Bay
Won 33-27.
12
LA Chargers vs Arizona
Arizona won 26-14. Why it missed: leaned on Harbaugh-year-2 momentum and Mack's upside, but underweighted two concrete facts already in hand -- Perryman's IR stint gutting the front seven, and Wilson coming off a genuine career year on a new contract. Model adjustment: when a pick already contains real info favoring the underdog, weight the personnel facts over the storyline.
11
LA Rams vs San Francisco
Rams got blown out 27-7 in the Australia opener. Why it missed: the pick leaned on preseason hype rather than weighing the actual conditions -- a true road/neutral-site opener against a division rival that knows the Rams' scheme well. Model adjustment: discount preseason power-ranking language for a team's first road or neutral-site game of the season, and weight division-rival familiarity as a real factor, not an afterthought.
10
Seattle vs New England
Seahawks held on 13-10 in the Kickoff Game -- tight, but the pick held.
9
Pittsburgh vs Atlanta
Won 20-13.
8
Baltimore vs Indianapolis
Won 41-23 on the road.
7
Dallas vs NY Giants
NY Giants won 28-20. Why it missed: correctly noted Dallas as the more hyped preseason offense, but treated that as decisive over an NFC East road divisional game -- exactly where a rebuilding home team often plays its best football. Model adjustment: discount preseason hype specifically in divisional road games; weight the home team's motivation as a real factor.
6
Chicago vs Carolina
Won 59-37 in a shootout.
5
Denver vs Kansas City
Kansas City won 31-10. Why it missed: leaned on a Mahomes-health narrative, but he looked fully healthy (2 passing TDs, a rushing TD), and Kenneth Walker III broke a 60-yard TD in his Chiefs debut. Model adjustment: a full offseason of recovery is a real reset, not just a reason to soften confidence.
4
Tennessee vs NY Jets
NY Jets won 23-10. Why it missed: already flagged as a coin-flip with only a slight home edge -- the model got the uncertainty right but the direction wrong. The Jets' kicker concern didn't matter; Tennessee's offense simply didn't show up. Model adjustment: a small stated edge shouldn't carry meaningfully more confidence than a true toss-up.
3
Minnesota vs Green Bay
Won 39-22 -- the Jacobs-exempt-list flip paid off big.
2
Las Vegas vs Miami
Won 27-13.
1
Houston vs Buffalo
Buffalo won 36-31. Why it missed: this was explicitly flagged pre-game as the closest game on the board itself (49.7% to 50.3%) -- a genuine coin-flip that landed the other way, which is exactly what a well-calibrated near-50/50 pick should do close to half the time. No model adjustment needed here.
270 pts
Week 2 Total · CFB Week 2 complete (20/23)
CFB Week 2
23
Indiana (#5) vs Howard
Cruised 55-0.
22
Virginia (#25) vs Norfolk State
Cruised 59-3 at home -- exactly the blowout expected.
21
LSU (#8) vs Louisiana Tech
Won 45-14 -- exactly the mismatch expected.
20
Houston (#22) vs Southern
Rolled 77-6.
19
Georgia (#2) vs Western Kentucky
Won 70-20.
18
SMU (#17) vs UC Davis
Won 56-10, bouncing back with a statement.
17
Ole Miss (#9) vs Charlotte
Won 41-9.
16
Notre Dame (#3) vs Rice
Shut out Rice 52-0.
15
Penn State (#16) vs Temple
Won 27-9 -- closer than the talent gap suggested, but comfortable.
14
Washington (#19) vs Utah State
Survived 16-14 -- much tighter than expected, but the pick held.
13
Texas A&M (#10) vs Arizona State
Won 48-20.
12
BYU (#15) vs Arizona
Won 28-17.
11
USC (#14) vs Louisiana
Won 49-30 in the late kickoff.
10
Louisville (#24) vs Villanova
Bounced back from last week's upset loss with a 59-13 rout.
9
Utah (#20) vs Arkansas
Won 43-10.
8
Texas Tech (#13) vs Oregon State
Won 35-24 on the road.
7
Missouri (#23) vs Kansas
Won 38-21 on the road -- more comfortable than the ~67% win probability suggested.
6
Tennessee (#18) vs Georgia Tech
Won 45-24 on the road.
5
Alabama (#12) vs Kentucky
Won 45-17 -- no SEC road trouble this time.
4
Iowa (#21) vs Iowa State
Won the Cy-Hawk rivalry 16-13 -- as tight as expected.
3
Oregon (#6) vs Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State won 39-31. Why it missed: the model itself flagged Oregon as shaky, but still defaulted to the higher-ranked team rather than acting on that signal. Model adjustment: let an observed weakness move the pick itself, not just soften the confidence level.
2
Oklahoma (#11) vs Michigan
Michigan won 17-10. Why it missed: correctly called a toss-up, but the pick leaned on Oklahoma's name-brand talent edge. Model adjustment: in genuine toss-ups, weight which team's style suits a close, low-scoring script.
1
Ohio State (#1) vs Texas (#4)
Texas won 24-23. Why it missed: correctly called a coin-flip and flagged Manning's turnover risk (he did throw a pick), but didn't account for how resilient Texas would be after falling behind 3-23 -- they scored 21 unanswered in the 4th quarter for one of the biggest comebacks of the season. Model adjustment: a flagged coin-flip team's capacity for a 4th-quarter surge deserves as much weight as the favorite's early lead.
74 pts
Week 2 Total · NFL Week 2 complete (9/16)
NFL Week 2
16
Baltimore vs New Orleans
The Zay Flowers absence flagged in the update note proved real -- Baltimore's offense never got going at home. Final: lost 17-24.
Update: Ravens WR Zay Flowers has been ruled out with a hamstring injury -- a real subtraction from Baltimore's offense. Pick stands at 16 (points are never revised once locked), but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 14, not a 16.
15
Tampa Bay vs Cleveland
Tampa Bay was competitive on the road last week; this week the roles reversed and Cleveland found enough offense to win at home. Final: lost 19-23.
14
San Francisco vs Miami
49ers dominated the Rams 27-7 in Australia; Dolphins were blown out by Las Vegas. Final: won 35-13.
13
Jacksonville vs Denver
This was the explicit "flip the model" pick, betting Jacksonville's recent form over Denver's home field. It didn't hold -- Denver won comfortably. Final: lost 13-20.
12
Kansas City vs Indianapolis
Chiefs looked fully healthy in a 31-10 win over Denver; Colts were blown out 23-41 by Baltimore. Final: won 33-30, closer than expected but held.
11
Philadelphia vs Tennessee
Eagles survived a scare at home vs Washington but still won; Titans were blown out 10-23 by the Jets. Final: won 24-20 in extreme heat, despite losing G Landon Dickerson for the season.
10
New England vs Pittsburgh
Model favored NE at home; the Pittman/Porter absences flagged in the update note proved decisive. Final: won 20-3, a real statement.
Update: Steelers WR Michael Pittman Jr. has been ruled out (foot), and there's no sign CB Joey Porter Jr.'s contract situation resolves in time for him to play this week either. Pittsburgh is thinner than expected. Pick stands at 10, but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 12, not a 10.
9
Buffalo vs Detroit
Bills won a shootout on the road at Houston; Lions were upset at home by New Orleans. The Ed Oliver injury note proved not to matter. Final: won 41-31.
Update: starting DT Ed Oliver was not on the injury report all week, but suffered a hip injury during pregame warmups tonight and has been ruled out -- a real hit to Buffalo's interior run defense and pass rush against a Lions offense built around Jahmyr Gibbs. Pick stands at 9 (points are never revised once locked), but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 6, not a 9.
8
Chicago vs Minnesota
The update note flagged Wentz starting as a downgrade for Minnesota and we raised confidence in Chicago on that basis -- backwards. Chicago's own offense collapsed (3 points). Final: lost 3-9.
Update: Vikings are starting Carson Wentz today -- a real downgrade at the position for Minnesota. Pick stands at 8, but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 10, not an 8.
7
Green Bay vs NY Jets
Packers were blown out by Minnesota while missing Josh Jacobs, but Jets looked good on the road. Final: Packers won 20-17 -- the talent gap held after all.
6
Houston vs Cincinnati
The Nico Collins injury flagged in the update note proved decisive -- Houston's offense managed just 6 points at home, exactly the concern raised. Final: lost 6-20.
Update: real news cutting against this pick -- Texans WR Nico Collins has been ruled out (hamstring), a subtraction from Houston's own offense. Meanwhile Bengals QB Joe Burrow is expected to start despite a questionable tag. Pick stands at 6, but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 4, not a 6.
5
Dallas vs Washington
Dallas was upset on the road at NY Giants; Washington lost a competitive road game at Philadelphia. Final: won 37-20, a real bounce-back.
4
Las Vegas vs LA Chargers
Raiders looked good winning at Miami; Chargers were upset at home by Arizona. Final: won 26-14 on the road, despite the Brock Bowers doubtful designation flagged.
Update: real news cutting against this pick -- Raiders TE Brock Bowers is doubtful, a subtraction from Las Vegas's own offense. Meanwhile Chargers WR Ladd McConkey has made rapid progress and intends to play. Pick stands at 4, but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 2, not a 4.
3
Arizona vs Seattle
Arizona had looked good beating the Chargers; Seattle simply played the better game on the road, winning comfortably. Final: lost 7-31.
2
Carolina vs Atlanta
Both teams were blown out in Week 1, and Atlanta's QB downgrade (Cooper Rush starting for the ruled-out Penix) flagged in the update note proved decisive. Final: Carolina won 34-3.
Update: Falcons have ruled out QB Michael Penix Jr. again -- Cooper Rush starts, with Jack Strand as backup. A real downgrade for Atlanta. Pick stands at 2, but if we were setting confidence fresh today, this would be a 4, not a 2.
1
NY Giants vs LA Rams
This pick was explicitly built on the "don't default to the bigger brand" lesson from the Rams' Week 1 blowout loss to SF. But that one bad game in a neutral-site opener wasn't a reliable form signal -- the Rams looked like a completely different team at home. Final: lost 6-28.
Update: Rams WR Puka Nacua (hip/groin) sat out practice both Friday and Saturday and is a genuine game-time decision for Monday night. But it cuts both ways -- the Giants' own secondary is banged up too (CB Deonte Banks questionable, Paulson Adebo on IR). This game has gotten more uncertain, not less. Pick stands at 1 -- already the lowest confidence on the board, and this news doesn't clearly move it either direction.
220 pts
Week 3 Total · CFB Week 3 complete (18/22, 4 misses)
CFB Week 3
22
Ohio State (#6) vs Kent State
Model gives Ohio State 100%. A MAC bottom-feeder on the road right after the gut-wrenching loss to Texas -- exactly the game a top program uses to reset. Final: won 59-3.
21
Oregon (#21) vs Portland State
Model gives Oregon 100% at home vs an FCS opponent. Final: won 84-0.
20
Miami (#5) vs Wake Forest
Model gives Miami 90.2% on the road. Final: won 33-20.
19
Indiana (#4) vs Western Kentucky
WKU was blown out 70-20 by Georgia last week; Indiana has looked dominant through two games. Final: won 38-0.
18
Iowa (#18) vs Northern Iowa
FCS opponent at home for a solid, if unspectacular, 2-0 Iowa team. Final: won 55-0.
17
Texas A&M (#9) vs Kentucky
Kentucky was blown out 45-17 by Alabama last week; A&M has been comfortable in both wins so far. Why it missed: the reasoning leaned entirely on Kentucky's loss to Alabama, but didn't account for letdown risk after two easy wins. Final: lost 21-31. Model adjustment: don't treat a blowout loss from an unrelated opponent as the deciding signal.&
16
Penn State (#14) vs Buffalo
Clear talent gap at home for a Penn State team that has yet to be seriously tested. Final: won 55-13.
15
Missouri (#20) vs Troy
Missouri is 2-0 with comfortable wins; Troy is a clear step down in competition. Final: won 27-17.
14
Oklahoma (#24) vs New Mexico
Bounce-back spot at home after the tough loss to Michigan, against a clearly overmatched opponent. Final: won 14-6, closer than expected but comfortable.
13
Virginia (#25) vs West Virginia
Virginia blew out Norfolk State 59-3 last week, but West Virginia is a real Power 4 team -- a bit more competitive than the recent form suggests. Why it missed: this exact risk was flagged before kickoff and it played out. Final: lost 27-38. Model adjustment: when a game already carries an explicit risk flag, that should mean materially lower confidence, not just a caveat sentence.
12
Notre Dame (#3) vs Michigan State
Notre Dame has looked excellent through two games; Michigan State is solid but a clear step down. Final: won 27-10.
11
Tennessee (#15) vs Kennesaw State
Tennessee blew out Georgia Tech 45-24 on the road last week; Kennesaw State is a big step down in competition at home. Final: won 42-9.
10
Michigan (#19) vs UTEP
Michigan just knocked off Oklahoma on a short week; UTEP is a significant step down in competition. Final: won 52-17.
9
Texas (#1) vs UTSA
Texas just pulled off a signature 21-point 4th-quarter comeback against Ohio State; UTSA was a clear underdog regardless. Final: won 30-6.
8
Georgia (#2) vs Arkansas
Georgia has been dominant through two games; Arkansas was just blown out 43-10 by Utah. Real gap, but on the road. Final: won 45-17.
7
Utah (#17) vs Utah State
In-state rivalry game -- Utah is clearly the better team (blew out Arkansas 43-10 last week) but rivalry games can get weird. Final: won 33-0.
6
Alabama (#10) vs Florida State
Alabama has looked solid but not dominant this season; Florida State has shown real flashes. A genuine test at home. Final: won 50-36, a real shootout as expected.
5
BYU (#11) vs Colorado State
BYU is 2-0 but on the road against a Colorado State team that has been competitive at home. Final: won 41-23.
4
USC (#12) vs Rutgers
USC has looked shaky defensively; Rutgers is a sneaky-competitive Big Ten team at home. Final: won 42-35, exactly the real test expected.
3
Texas Tech (#13) vs Houston (#22)
A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup (#13 vs #22). Model gives Tech 74.2%, and they're coming off a real road win at Oregon State, but Houston is unproven at this level. Final: won 28-26.
2
SMU (#16) vs Louisville (#23)
Another ranked-vs-ranked matchup (#16 vs #23). SMU is on the road against a Louisville team playing its home opener -- genuine uncertainty here. Why it missed: that exact risk played out. Final: lost 31-41. Model adjustment: home-opener energy for the opponent is a real, quantifiable factor.
1
LSU (#7) vs Ole Miss (#8)
The marquee game of the week -- two Top 10 teams (#7 vs #8), LSU on the road at a place that has beaten good teams before. Genuine coin-flip, lowest confidence on the board. Why it missed: it landed on the wrong side, which is exactly what an honest coin-flip should do close to half the time. Final: lost 24-32. Model adjustment: none needed -- this is what a well-calibrated toss-up looks like sometimes.