Won 63-3.

Won 50-0.

Won 54-14 -- Simmons threw 4 TDs in his debut.

Won 33-10.

Won 48-14.

Won 59-7.

Won 63-7 -- Bachmeier threw 3 first-half TDs.

Won 51-0 -- total shutout.

Won 56-3.

Won 52-16.

Won 45-0.

Won 56-9.

Won 40-0.

Won 13-12 on a 47-yard Hail Mary as time expired -- after officials put one second back on the clock following a first failed attempt.

Won 34-27 -- trailed 17-7 at half as a 24.5-point favorite before a 62-yard TD catch gave Oregon the lead for good with 7:51 left.

Won 39-0 -- total shutout.

Won 66-14 -- Devon Dampier and the Utes cruised.

Won 27-24 in OT -- had to survive a late push.

Huskies covered as the clear favorite, 24-10 — no drama in the Apple Cup.

Irish rolled Wisconsin 41-13, never in doubt.

Mustangs won it 27-24 on the road — exactly the upset-caliber game we flagged as a genuine coin-flip.

Won 51-10.

Rebels survived 41-38 — Louisville made this a lot closer than the confidence points suggested.

Won 45-6 -- Miami dominated on the road.

Cruised 55-0.

Cruised 59-3 at home -- exactly the blowout expected.

Won 45-14 -- exactly the mismatch expected.

Rolled 77-6.

Won 70-20.

Won 56-10, bouncing back with a statement.

Won 41-9.

Shut out Rice 52-0.

Won 27-9 -- closer than the talent gap suggested, but comfortable.

Survived 16-14 -- much tighter than expected, but the pick held.

Won 48-20.

Won 28-17.

Won 49-30 in the late kickoff.

Bounced back from last week's upset loss with a 59-13 rout.

Won 43-10.

Won 35-24 on the road.

Won 38-21 on the road -- more comfortable than the ~67% win probability suggested.

Won 45-24 on the road.

Won 45-17 -- no SEC road trouble this time.

Won the Cy-Hawk rivalry 16-13 -- as tight as expected.

Oklahoma State won 39-31. Why it missed: the model itself flagged Oregon as shaky, but still defaulted to the higher-ranked team rather than acting on that signal. Model adjustment: let an observed weakness move the pick itself, not just soften the confidence level.

Michigan won 17-10. Why it missed: correctly called a toss-up, but the pick leaned on Oklahoma's name-brand talent edge. Model adjustment: in genuine toss-ups, weight which team's style suits a close, low-scoring script.

Texas won 24-23. Why it missed: correctly called a coin-flip and flagged Manning's turnover risk (he did throw a pick), but didn't account for how resilient Texas would be after falling behind 3-23 -- they scored 21 unanswered in the 4th quarter for one of the biggest comebacks of the season. Model adjustment: a flagged coin-flip team's capacity for a 4th-quarter surge deserves as much weight as the favorite's early lead.

The Zay Flowers absence flagged in the update note proved real -- Baltimore's offense never got going at home. Final: lost 17-24.

Tampa Bay was competitive on the road last week; this week the roles reversed and Cleveland found enough offense to win at home. Final: lost 19-23.

49ers dominated the Rams 27-7 in Australia; Dolphins were blown out by Las Vegas. Final: won 35-13.

This was the explicit "flip the model" pick, betting Jacksonville's recent form over Denver's home field. It didn't hold -- Denver won comfortably. Final: lost 13-20.

Chiefs looked fully healthy in a 31-10 win over Denver; Colts were blown out 23-41 by Baltimore. Final: won 33-30, closer than expected but held.

Eagles survived a scare at home vs Washington but still won; Titans were blown out 10-23 by the Jets. Final: won 24-20 in extreme heat, despite losing G Landon Dickerson for the season.

Model favored NE at home; the Pittman/Porter absences flagged in the update note proved decisive. Final: won 20-3, a real statement.

Bills won a shootout on the road at Houston; Lions were upset at home by New Orleans. The Ed Oliver injury note proved not to matter. Final: won 41-31.

The update note flagged Wentz starting as a downgrade for Minnesota and we raised confidence in Chicago on that basis -- backwards. Chicago's own offense collapsed (3 points). Final: lost 3-9.

Packers were blown out by Minnesota while missing Josh Jacobs, but Jets looked good on the road. Final: Packers won 20-17 -- the talent gap held after all.

The Nico Collins injury flagged in the update note proved decisive -- Houston's offense managed just 6 points at home, exactly the concern raised. Final: lost 6-20.

Dallas was upset on the road at NY Giants; Washington lost a competitive road game at Philadelphia. Final: won 37-20, a real bounce-back.

Raiders looked good winning at Miami; Chargers were upset at home by Arizona. Final: won 26-14 on the road, despite the Brock Bowers doubtful designation flagged.

Arizona had looked good beating the Chargers; Seattle simply played the better game on the road, winning comfortably. Final: lost 7-31.

Both teams were blown out in Week 1, and Atlanta's QB downgrade (Cooper Rush starting for the ruled-out Penix) flagged in the update note proved decisive. Final: Carolina won 34-3.

This pick was explicitly built on the "don't default to the bigger brand" lesson from the Rams' Week 1 blowout loss to SF. But that one bad game in a neutral-site opener wasn't a reliable form signal -- the Rams looked like a completely different team at home. Final: lost 6-28.

Model gives Ohio State 100%. A MAC bottom-feeder on the road right after the gut-wrenching loss to Texas -- exactly the game a top program uses to reset. Final: won 59-3.

Model gives Oregon 100% at home vs an FCS opponent. Final: won 84-0.

Model gives Miami 90.2% on the road. Final: won 33-20.

WKU was blown out 70-20 by Georgia last week; Indiana has looked dominant through two games. Final: won 38-0.

FCS opponent at home for a solid, if unspectacular, 2-0 Iowa team. Final: won 55-0.

Kentucky was blown out 45-17 by Alabama last week; A&M has been comfortable in both wins so far. Why it missed: the reasoning leaned entirely on Kentucky's loss to Alabama, but didn't account for letdown risk after two easy wins. Final: lost 21-31. Model adjustment: don't treat a blowout loss from an unrelated opponent as the deciding signal.&

Clear talent gap at home for a Penn State team that has yet to be seriously tested. Final: won 55-13.

Missouri is 2-0 with comfortable wins; Troy is a clear step down in competition. Final: won 27-17.

Bounce-back spot at home after the tough loss to Michigan, against a clearly overmatched opponent. Final: won 14-6, closer than expected but comfortable.

Virginia blew out Norfolk State 59-3 last week, but West Virginia is a real Power 4 team -- a bit more competitive than the recent form suggests. Why it missed: this exact risk was flagged before kickoff and it played out. Final: lost 27-38. Model adjustment: when a game already carries an explicit risk flag, that should mean materially lower confidence, not just a caveat sentence.

Notre Dame has looked excellent through two games; Michigan State is solid but a clear step down. Final: won 27-10.

Tennessee blew out Georgia Tech 45-24 on the road last week; Kennesaw State is a big step down in competition at home. Final: won 42-9.

Michigan just knocked off Oklahoma on a short week; UTEP is a significant step down in competition. Final: won 52-17.

Texas just pulled off a signature 21-point 4th-quarter comeback against Ohio State; UTSA was a clear underdog regardless. Final: won 30-6.

Georgia has been dominant through two games; Arkansas was just blown out 43-10 by Utah. Real gap, but on the road. Final: won 45-17.

In-state rivalry game -- Utah is clearly the better team (blew out Arkansas 43-10 last week) but rivalry games can get weird. Final: won 33-0.

Alabama has looked solid but not dominant this season; Florida State has shown real flashes. A genuine test at home. Final: won 50-36, a real shootout as expected.

BYU is 2-0 but on the road against a Colorado State team that has been competitive at home. Final: won 41-23.

USC has looked shaky defensively; Rutgers is a sneaky-competitive Big Ten team at home. Final: won 42-35, exactly the real test expected.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup (#13 vs #22). Model gives Tech 74.2%, and they're coming off a real road win at Oregon State, but Houston is unproven at this level. Final: won 28-26.

Another ranked-vs-ranked matchup (#16 vs #23). SMU is on the road against a Louisville team playing its home opener -- genuine uncertainty here. Why it missed: that exact risk played out. Final: lost 31-41. Model adjustment: home-opener energy for the opponent is a real, quantifiable factor.

The marquee game of the week -- two Top 10 teams (#7 vs #8), LSU on the road at a place that has beaten good teams before. Genuine coin-flip, lowest confidence on the board. Why it missed: it landed on the wrong side, which is exactly what an honest coin-flip should do close to half the time. Final: lost 24-32. Model adjustment: none needed -- this is what a well-calibrated toss-up looks like sometimes.

This was the highest-confidence pick on the board, built entirely on Chicago's QB catastrophe -- Caleb Williams out, Tyson Bagent barely cleared concussion protocol, leaving a 38-year-old who hadn't played since 2023. The premise was accurate, but the conclusion was backwards: a well-coached backup can still win. Keenum went 24-of-34 for 247 yards, 2 TDs, a rushing TD, zero turnovers, while Chicago's defense forced 3 takeaways off Hurts. Final: lost 7-27.

Model gives KC 85.5%. Chiefs are 2-0 and dominant; Dolphins are 0-2 and have been blown out both weeks. Final: won 24-10 on the road.

Seahawks are 2-0 and playing excellent football. Washington is 0-2, and QB Jayden Daniels' status is genuinely uncertain -- reports suggest an IR decision is pending. Why it missed: Seattle was a 76.5% favorite (some variance), but the pick also let the opponent's QB trouble drive top-tier confidence -- the same habit that hurt with Chicago last week. Final: lost 31-33. Model adjustment: treat an opponent's QB uncertainty as a tiebreaker, not a driver.

Model gives Buffalo 74.7%. Bills are 2-0 and have scored at will; Chargers are 0-2. Final: won 24-16.

49ers are 2-0 and have looked dominant in both wins; Arizona is 1-1. Final: won 36-30, tighter than the numbers suggested.

Vikings are 2-0 with real wins over Green Bay and Chicago; Buccaneers are 0-2. Final: won 23-16 on the road.

Model gives Green Bay 71%. Atlanta is 0-2 and just lost starting CB A.J. Terrell Jr. to IR -- a real subtraction on defense. Why it missed: Atlanta won on the ground -- 41 carries, 242 yards, three rushing TDs -- while Green Bay ran 9 times for 17 yards. A pass-defense weakness doesn't matter if the opponent wins another way. Final: lost 14-35. Model adjustment: when a pick rests on one unit's weakness, check whether the opponent's strength is in that unit.

Model gives Cincinnati 63.4% on the road. Bengals are 2-0; Steelers are 1-1. Why it missed: a 63.4% road favorite in a divisional game lost by 3, with a late forced fumble on Burrow reportedly sealing it (NBC Sports) -- mostly variance. Final: lost 27-30. Model adjustment: a road pick with a sub-65% edge belongs mid-board, not the upper half.

Model gives Carolina 57.7% on the road. Panthers just blew out Atlanta 34-3; Browns are 1-1. Why it missed: the edge was thin and the headline evidence was one blowout -- Atlanta then beat Green Bay 35-14. Final: lost 18-21. Model adjustment: give slim road edges mid-board points at most.

Model gives Detroit 72.7% despite their own 0-2 start -- talent gap over an also-0-2 Jets team. Final: won 31-24.

Model gives Jacksonville 58.4%. Real complication for New England: starting OL Mike Onwenu just went on IR, and Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled again while TreVeyon Henderson broke a 39-yard TD -- real backfield and O-line uncertainty. Final: won 35-6 -- the concerns flagged for New England showed up.

Model gives Houston 57.3%. Both teams are 0-2 -- a real toss-up, sticking with the model's slight lean. Why it missed: a labeled toss-up lost by 2 points. Final: lost 17-19. Model adjustment: none needed.

Both teams are 1-1. Leaning Baltimore on roster talent, but no strong signal either way. Final: won 34-31 on the road.

Both teams are 1-1 and bounced back from ugly Week 1 losses with Week 2 wins. Genuine toss-up on Sunday Night Football; slight home-field lean. Final: won 30-26 after trailing 16-0 at halftime.

Both teams are a surprising 2-0. Genuine coin-flip between two undefeated teams -- leaning Las Vegas, not with much conviction. Final: won 35-27 on the road.

The contrarian pick of the week: Giants QB Jaxson Dart was lost for the season to a knee injury and Jameis Winston replaced him, with WR Malik Nabers also hurt. Tennessee is 0-2 and has looked bad, but the Giants' offense was compromised -- lowest confidence on the board. Why it missed: New York's offense was limited (Winston: 118 yards, no TDs), but four field goals and a defense that held Tennessee scoreless until the final six minutes, in rain and wind, were enough. Tennessee's offense was weaker: 7 points, two turnovers, a missed 50+ yard FG. Final: lost 7-12. Model adjustment: weigh both offenses, not just the one with the injury news.

Model gives Indiana 92.2%. Hoosiers are 3-0 and have been dominant all season. Final: won 29-23 -- far closer than a 92.2% model edge suggested.

Miami is 3-0 and has looked excellent; Central Michigan is a significant step down in competition. Final: won 52-3.

Ohio State reset hard after the Texas loss, blowing out Kent State 59-3. Illinois is a clear step down. Final: won 42-19.

Alabama is 3-0 and has looked solid at home, including a real shootout win over Florida State. Final: won 49-18.

Georgia has been dominant through three games; Oklahoma is decent but a clear step down. Final: won 41-13.

Notre Dame is 3-0 and has looked excellent; Purdue is not in the same class this season. Final: won 49-10.

Penn State has blown out every opponent this season, including a 55-13 win over Buffalo last week. Why it missed: those blowouts came against Marshall, Temple and Buffalo -- softer opposition than Wisconsin, which had just beaten Eastern Michigan 54-10. Final: lost 20-24. Model adjustment: discount form built against weaker opponents, especially at 12 points.

Texas Tech is a ranked Power 4 team facing a clearly overmatched opponent -- clear mismatch on paper. Final: won 49-14.

Louisville has looked solid this season aside from a 41-38 loss to Ole Miss in Week 1; Wake Forest is a clear step down. Why it missed: Louisville was coming off its biggest win of the season (41-31 over then-#16 SMU) -- a possible letdown spot I never weighed. Final: lost 27-30. Model adjustment: after a team's biggest win, hold back points against a lesser opponent.

Houston has been solid this season (wins over Oregon State and Southern, a 28-26 loss at Texas Tech) and still has the talent edge on the road here. Final: won 42-28 on the road.

Utah has looked like a real team (a 43-10 win over Arkansas, a 33-0 win over Utah State); Iowa State has been solid, but this is a road test for Utah, not a mismatch. Final: won 31-17 on the road.

SMU is coming off a loss to Louisville but returns home against a clearly overmatched opponent. Final: won 34-24.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup (#4 vs #21). Ole Miss had just beaten LSU at home in Oxford, but this was a real road test at Florida. Why it missed: Florida ran 53 times for 302 yards and six rushing TDs with no turnovers and nearly 37 minutes of possession, while Ole Miss's defense couldn't get a stop. Two of Ole Miss's three wins had been close, offense-driven games. Final: lost 28-52. Correction: this card originally said Ole Miss beat LSU 'on the road' -- it was at home. Model adjustment: shootout-style wins are a risk on the road against a team that controls the ball.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup. LSU is coming off a loss to Ole Miss -- real uncertainty here. Final: won 35-6.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup. Missouri is 3-0, but this is a real road test. Why it missed: a labeled toss-up at 4 points, lost by 7 -- exactly the damage the low point value was meant to cap. Final: lost 24-31. Model adjustment: none needed.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup at home for USC, but Oregon has looked dangerous. Real uncertainty. Why it missed: Oregon won even without starting QB Dante Moore -- 504 yards, no turnovers, three rushing TDs -- while USC's defense had no sacks or takeaways. Maiava threw for 326 yards in the loss. Final: lost 27-41. Model adjustment: none needed; capped at 3 points.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup -- the two teams are separated by one spot in the rankings. Coin-flip. Why it missed: a one-point game (Michigan hosted; Iowa won 20-19 on the road). The pre-game label had the venue backwards. Final: lost 19-20. Model adjustment: none needed.

The marquee game of the week: #1 Texas on the road at #14 Tennessee, after a signature comeback win over Ohio State and a 30-6 win over UTSA. Genuine toss-up, lowest confidence on the board. Final: won 20-17 at Tennessee in a sack-heavy game (16 combined).

Model gives Baltimore 86.7%, the highest number on the board this week. Ravens just beat Dallas 34-31 and have Derrick Henry rolling (3rd all-time in rushing TDs); Tennessee is still winless with a struggling offense. Final: won 24-18.

Model gives Buffalo 73.2%. Bills are 2-0 in their last two; Josh Allen wasn't even listed on the injury report. New England's top CB Christian Gonzalez didn't practice (shoulder), and Drake Maye is playing through his own shoulder injury. Why it missed: the injury news cut the wrong way -- Maye threw 3 TD passes and led a game-winning two-point drive with 1:50 left, despite his own shoulder issue. Josh Allen's health edge didn't translate into a win. Final: lost 26-29. Model adjustment: a healthy-vs-injured QB framing isn't the whole picture -- weigh the injured QB's own chance of playing well too.

San Francisco has looked like the best team in football the last two weeks (wins over Miami and Arizona by a combined 28 points). Denver is solid but this is a real step up in competition. Final: won 24-14 on the road.

Model gives Indianapolis 63.7% on the road. Colts bounced back with a win over Houston; Washington survived a shootout against Seattle but hasn't looked dominant. Final: won 30-13 on the road.

Model gives Green Bay 62.6%, but this is complicated: Packers just lost WR Jayden Reed to season-ending neck surgery after being blown out by Atlanta, while Tampa Bay lost QB Baker Mayfield (three weeks, thumb) to an undrafted rookie. Leaning Green Bay since a backup QB is a bigger downgrade than a backup WR, but real uncertainty both ways. Final: won 17-14 -- the Jalon Daniels downgrade for Tampa Bay showed up more than the Jayden Reed loss hurt Green Bay.

Model gives Chicago 62.2%. Bears just pulled off a statement upset over Philadelphia with Case Keenum; Jets are 0-2 in their last two and in a difficult spot. Final: won 23-12.

Atlanta just blew out Green Bay 35-14 on the road on Thursday Night Football; New Orleans lost a shootout at home to Las Vegas 27-35 last week. Real momentum on Atlanta's side heading into Monday night. Final: won 45-24.

Model gives Houston 59.6% on the road. Both teams are around .500 in their last two games -- a real toss-up with a slight model lean. Why it missed: a genuinely close game decided on the final possession -- Houston led for most of it, but Dallas scored late to win. Final: lost 30-34. Model adjustment: none needed, this was essentially a coin flip and it landed the other way.

Model gives the Rams 59.4% at home. Eagles are reeling after a 7-27 loss to Chicago and had to sign depth DB help; Rams WR Puka Nacua is expected to play through a groin issue. Final: won 24-20 -- Nacua caught 9 passes for 125 yards in his return.

Model gives Pittsburgh 57.9% at home on Thursday Night Football. Both teams are coming off wins; a close divisional-style game expected. Why it missed: a genuinely close game decided on the final play -- Cleveland's Andre Szmyt hit a career-best 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left to win it. Pittsburgh actually outscored Cleveland in the fourth quarter and had a late lead before the Browns' answering drive. Final: lost 24-27. Model adjustment: none needed -- the model had this at 57.9%, essentially a coin flip, and it played out that way.

Model gives Cincinnati 57.1% at home. Both teams are around .500; a close spot either way. Why it missed: a close game (57.1% model edge) that went the other way, Jacksonville controlling the margin late. Final: lost 17-22. Model adjustment: none needed, a near-coin-flip pick losing isn't a process error.

Model gives Arizona 56.2% on the road. Both teams have been inconsistent; genuine uncertainty here. Why it missed: a real road favorite by the model's own number that lost outright -- the Giants controlled this one. Final: lost 24-36. Model adjustment: none needed, this was a genuine toss-up and it landed the other way.

Miami has struggled badly the last two weeks (losses to San Francisco and Kansas City); Minnesota has looked more competitive. No market line posted yet. Final: won 15-10.

Kansas City is 2-0 in their last two and playing clean football. Las Vegas has also looked good, including a win over New Orleans -- this is a real test, not a mismatch. Final: won 30-27 on the road.

The Chargers are 0-3 on the season by their own beat reporters' framing, despite preseason optimism. Seattle has looked more competitive. No market line posted yet. Final: won 30-23 on the road.

Carolina just lost star CB Jaycee Horn to a torn quad, likely season-ending -- a real blow to their defense on the road against a Detroit team coming off a win. Lowest confidence on the board given how fresh and uncertain this news is. Why it missed: this was the lowest-confidence pick on the board specifically because of the Horn injury, and Carolina won anyway, 32-26 -- their offense (445 total yards, 2 rushing TDs from Chuba Hubbard) carried them regardless of the secondary question mark. Detroit actually outgained Carolina but settled for four field goals. Model adjustment: a fresh injury to one side isn't enough on its own to flip a pick -- check whether that team's offense can still win the game regardless, the same lesson as the Tennessee-Giants miss a few weeks ago.

Model gives Notre Dame 93.3%. Irish are 4-0 and have blown out every opponent, including a 49-10 win over Purdue last week. Final: won 37-26.

Model gives SMU 91.7% at home. Mustangs have been solid all season; Boston College is a clear step down. Final: won 25-16.

Model gives Houston 80.6% at home. Cougars have looked strong aside from a narrow loss to Texas Tech. Final: won 27-17.

Georgia is 4-0 and has been dominant all season; Vanderbilt is a clear step down in competition. Final: won 38-14.

Miami is 4-0 and has looked excellent, including a 52-3 win last week; Clemson has been inconsistent, including a blowout loss to LSU. Final: won 41-13 on the road.

Indiana is 4-0 and has been dominant all season; Rutgers is a clear step down. Final: won 47-15 on the road.

LSU is a ranked Power 4 team against an FCS opponent -- clear mismatch on paper. Final: won 63-14.

BYU is 3-0 and has looked solid all season, including wins over Arizona and Colorado State; a real true road test at TCU. Final: won 17-10 on the road.

Boise State has looked solid aside from an early loss to Oregon; Utah State has struggled all season. Final: won 37-18.

Texas Tech has been solid this season aside from an early loss to Houston; Colorado has been inconsistent. Final: won 29-7 on the road.

Both teams are coming off losses to Alabama, but Kentucky has looked more competitive overall this season. Final: survived 35-34 on the road.

A real SEC test. Tennessee has been solid at home, but Auburn has been competitive all season -- genuine uncertainty here. Final: won 24-14.

USC is coming off a bad loss at Oregon (27-41); Washington has looked steadier but unspectacular. Real uncertainty after that result. Final: won 25-21, bouncing back from the Oregon loss.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup. Model gives Alabama 66.6% on the road, but this is a real test, not a mismatch. Final: won 56-23 -- far more comfortably than the model number suggested.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup. Florida has looked excellent this season, but this is a real road test. Why it missed: the biggest upset of the week. Missouri controlled the clock on the ground while Florida's defense (498 yards allowed the prior week) couldn't get a stop. Florida has now lost two straight since their own upset of Ole Miss. Final: lost 17-45. Model adjustment: treat Florida's form as more volatile this season rather than assuming their best week is their real level.

A genuine ranked-vs-ranked matchup. Ohio State is still finding its footing after an early loss to Texas; Iowa's defense has been excellent all season. Lowest confidence on the board. Final: won 31-14 on the road -- a real statement after the Texas loss.

Model gives Dallas 79.8% (DraftKings -8.5) at home on Thursday Night Football. Dallas has scored 31 or more in three of four games. Tampa Bay is 0-4, has scored less every week (27, 19, 16, 14), starts backup Jalon Daniels again with Baker Mayfield out, and is missing safety Antoine Winfield Jr., cornerback Benjamin Morrison and linebacker SirVocea Dennis. Part of this edge is Tampa Bay's weakness rather than Dallas's form, but the model number clears the 75% bar on its own.

Model gives Jacksonville 77.8% (DraftKings -7) in London. Jacksonville is 3-1 and has won its last two by 29 (New England) and 5 (at Cincinnati). Philadelphia is 2-2 and coming off a 24-20 loss to the Rams; RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and edge Jonathan Greenard (ankle) did not practice Wednesday, and the Eagles have traded center Cam Jurgens. This is the cleanest top-tier case on the board: strong own form plus the model.

Model gives Houston 77.6% (DraftKings -7.5) on the road. Both teams are 0-4, but Tennessee has scored 20 or fewer in every game (10, 20, 7, 18) and RB Tony Pollard (foot) did not practice Wednesday. Houston is the least proven of the three top picks: it is winless and coach DeMeco Ryans just took over defensive play-calling, so this pick rests on the model and Tennessee's offense, not on Houston's form.

Model gives Cincinnati 73.5% (DraftKings -6.5) on the road. Miami is 0-4 and has scored 13 or fewer in every game. Cincinnati's risk is its own: Ja'Marr Chase (concussion protocol) and Tee Higgins (groin, neck) both missed Wednesday's practice. It sits just under the 75% line for the top slots, and the receiver news is why it stays at 13.

Detroit is a 5.5-point road favorite (no model number posted yet). Arizona is 1-3, lost left tackle Paris Johnson Jr. for the season, and had six players miss Wednesday's practice. Detroit is 2-2 and just lost 32-26 at Carolina despite out-gaining them (452 to 445 yards), so this is a market-and-matchup pick rather than a form pick.

Model gives New England 64% (DraftKings -3.5) at home. The Patriots won 29-26 at Buffalo last week and Drake Maye was a full participant Wednesday despite his shoulder. Both starting corners (Christian Gonzalez, Carlton Davis) did not practice, which is New England's main risk. Las Vegas is 3-1, but WR Jalen Nailor (concussion) missed practice.

Denver is a 3.5-point road favorite (no model number posted yet). The Chargers are 0-4 and both starting tackles (Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater) and WR Ladd McConkey did not practice Wednesday. Denver has its own issues: cornerback Pat Surtain II (ankle) did not practice and the Broncos lost 24-14 at San Francisco last week.

Atlanta is a 3.5-point home favorite on Sunday Night Football (no model number posted yet). Lamar Jackson (ankle) did not practice Wednesday and has only an "outside chance" to play, so Tyler Huntley is the likely starter; left tackle Ronnie Stanley and edge Trey Hendrickson also did not practice. This is ranked on the line, not on Jackson's absence: Atlanta is 2-2 and erratic (45-24 and 35-14 wins, but a 34-3 loss at Carolina), so it stays mid-board until his status is official.

Model gives Washington 63.4% (DraftKings -3.5), but that number assumes Jayden Daniels returns from his dislocated elbow. He was a full participant Wednesday and Friday's practice is the real test; backup Marcus Mariota (knee) did not practice, so a setback means the third-string QB. The Giants are 3-1 and Jameis Winston is 2-0 as the starter, though WR Malik Nabers (knee) and left tackle Andrew Thomas (groin) missed Wednesday. Ranked below its raw number for the Daniels risk.

The Rams are 2.5- to 3-point home favorites on Monday Night Football (moneyline roughly 59% to 60%; no model number posted yet). Buffalo is 3-1 but coming off a 29-26 loss to New England, and WR D.J. Moore aggravated a shoulder injury. Analysts note the Bills rank near the bottom against the run while the Rams rank in the top ten in run success. This is the last game of the week, so the picture can still move.

Model gives Pittsburgh 56.7% (DraftKings -2.5) at home. A close one: Indianapolis is coming off a 30-13 win at Washington while Pittsburgh lost 27-24 at Cleveland. Cornerbacks Jalen Ramsey (knee) and Jamel Dean (ankle) did not practice Wednesday, which is the risk.

Model gives the Jets 55% (DraftKings -1.5) at home, essentially a coin flip. Cleveland is 3-1 but had three defensive linemen (Derek Barnett, Mason Graham, Mike Hall) miss Wednesday's practice. The Jets are 1-3 and RB Breece Hall (quad) did not practice. Low confidence on purpose.

Model gives Minnesota 54.8% (DraftKings -1.5). The Vikings are 4-0, though their last two wins came by 7 and 5 points, and WR Jordan Addison and left tackle Christian Darrisaw (concussion) missed Wednesday. New Orleans is 1-3 on a short week after a 45-24 Monday night loss to Atlanta.

Green Bay is a 2.5-point home favorite, but the model gives Chicago 54.3%. The two disagree, so this is a coin flip and it is ranked low. I am leaning with the market and Chicago's injuries: QB Caleb Williams (hamstring) has not played since Week 2, and RBs D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai plus linemen Jonah Jackson, Joe Thuney and Darnell Wright missed Wednesday. Green Bay has its own line problems (three guards did not practice), and Chicago won 23-12 last week, so this is not a one-way call.

Seattle is a 2.5-point home favorite (no model number posted yet). San Francisco is 4-0, but DE Nick Bosa (knee, calf) and several veterans did not practice Wednesday; Seattle is 3-1 with a 30-23 win over the Chargers. A genuine toss-up between two of the best NFC records, which is why it sits at the bottom.

Win probability 98.5% (our rating 95.6%, market Notre Dame -38.5). Irish are 5-0 allowing 11.8 points a game; Stanford is 2-3 and allowing 38.2.

Win probability 95.1% (our rating 85.7%, market Ohio State -34.5). Ohio State allows 12.6 a game; Maryland is 2-3 and allowing 30.2.

Win probability 87.8% (our rating 80.5%, market Utah -15.5). Utah is 4-0 scoring 43.3 and allowing 10.3 a game; Kansas is 2-2.

Win probability 84.8% (our rating 76.7%, market Tennessee -13.5). Tennessee is 4-1 allowing 15.2 a game; Arkansas is 2-3 scoring 19.8 and allowing 28.4.

Win probability 79.3% (our rating 70.9%, market BYU -10.5). BYU is 4-0 allowing 14.3 a game and is at home; Iowa State is 3-2.

Win probability 73.5% (our rating 74.1%, market Texas -7.5). Texas is 4-0 allowing 13.3 a game; Oklahoma is 2-2 scoring 22.0 a game. Rivalry game at a neutral site, with a low 39.5 total.

Win probability 73.1% (our rating 55.8%, market Oklahoma State -9.5). The market is far more confident than our rating. Oklahoma State is 3-1 and at home; UCF is 3-2.

Win probability 72.9% (our rating 52.3%, market Ole Miss -10). Ole Miss is 3-1 but allows 30.8 a game; Vanderbilt QB Jared Curtis is questionable with a lower-body injury.

Win probability 72.7% (our rating 60.0%, market LSU -8.5). LSU is 4-1 scoring 43.6 and allowing 15.2 a game, but Kentucky just survived South Carolina 35-34 and this is a road game.

Win probability 81.8% (our rating 70.3%, market Florida -12.5), placed lower than the number suggests. Florida lost 17-45 at Missouri last week, and we are treating its form as volatile. South Carolina is 2-3.

Win probability 68.2% (market Oregon -11.5 at 78.7%, but our rating has UCLA slightly ahead). UCLA is 4-0 scoring 44.8 a game and is the biggest disagreement on the board; Oregon is 3-1 and at home.

Win probability 65.9% (our rating 50.3%, market Boise State -6.5). Boise State is 4-1 scoring 34.4 a game; Fresno State is 4-1 allowing 16.4, so this is a real road game.

Win probability 64.8% (our rating 69.4%, market Missouri -3.5). Missouri is 4-1 and at home after beating Florida 45-17; Texas A&M is 3-2.

Win probability 62.8% (market Indiana -7.5 at 72.2%, but our rating leans Nebraska). Indiana is 5-0 allowing 10.8 a game; Nebraska is 5-0 and at home, scoring 43.6, so a genuine disagreement.

Win probability about 61% (market Pittsburgh -4). Pitt is 5-0 but starting QB Mason Heintschel is out for the season with a torn ACL, so backup Holden Geriner starts. UNC is 2-2 with a weak offense.

Win probability 58.5% (our rating 72.2%, market Alabama -1.5). A ranked-vs-ranked matchup (#2 vs #6), both 5-0. Georgia scores 51.4 a game and Alabama 49.6. A true toss-up, with Alabama at home.

Win probability 58.3% (our rating 51.7%, market Washington -3). Iowa (#20) is 4-1 allowing 12.6 a game but lost to Ohio State last week; Washington is 3-2 and at home. Friday night.

Win probability 55.8% (our rating 52.4% for Houston, market Kansas State -2.5). Houston (#22) is 4-1 scoring 41.0 a game and Kansas State is 3-1 and at home. Close, with a slight edge to the home team.

Win probability 53.7% (our rating 56.4%, market Penn State -1.5). USC (#19) is 5-1 and Penn State is 3-2, so this is the lowest-confidence call on the board and effectively a coin flip.

Market-implied win probability is 86% (bet365 Rams -12.5, moneyline -900). Arizona has lost four straight, gave up 45 to Detroit last week and has allowed 162 points, the most in the league. The Rams are only 2-3 and lost in overtime to Buffalo, so this rests on the gap between the two defenses and the number rather than on Los Angeles form. Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love (ankle) did not practice Wednesday.

Market-implied win probability is 79% (Chiefs -8.5, moneyline -470). Kansas City is 4-0 and coming off its bye with Patrick Mahomes a full participant. The Chargers are 0-5 and scoring 16.8 per game, and OT Joe Alt (neck) and several receivers (Tre Harris, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston) are on the injury report. The risk is Chiefs WR Rashee Rice (hamstring and knee), who did not practice Wednesday.

Market-implied win probability is 78% (49ers -7.5, moneyline -420). San Francisco is 5-0 and just beat Seattle 32-29. Washington is 1-3-1, has allowed 149 points (29.8 per game) and gave away a 14-point fourth quarter lead in the tie with the Giants. The risks are real: Deebo Samuel is out, Nick Bosa (calf) is uncertain, and Jayden Daniels rushed for 103 yards in his return.

Market-implied win probability is 75% (Patriots -7.5, moneyline -350), just under the top-tier bar. New England beat Las Vegas 45-17 and Drake Maye has 643 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception over his last two games. The Jets are 2-3 and Breece Hall (quad) has not practiced since Week 3. The Patriots have their own holes: RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) and OT Will Campbell (knee) are reportedly out.

Market-implied win probability is 74% (Colts -7, moneyline -340). Tennessee is 0-5, scored 3 points last week against Houston and has not scored more than 20 in any game. This sits at 10 and not higher because Indianapolis is 2-3 and its defense has allowed 138 points (27.6 per game), including 34 to Pittsburgh, so the pick rests on the Titans offense and not on Colts form.

Market-implied win probability is 68% (Bills -5.5, moneyline -240). Buffalo is 4-1 and Josh Allen ran for 121 yards in the overtime win over the Rams. Las Vegas is 3-2 but lost 45-17 at New England and is short at receiver (Jalen Nailor in concussion protocol, Jack Bech on injured reserve). The risk is Buffalo itself: 13 penalties and 454 yards allowed last week, with D.J. Moore, Ed Oliver and Spencer Brown on the injury report.

Market-implied win probability is 69% (Ravens -4.5, moneyline -250). Baltimore is 4-1 and Tyler Huntley beat Atlanta in overtime. Lamar Jackson (ankle) did not practice Wednesday but reportedly has a real chance to play. Cleveland is 3-2 and just lost 17-12 to the Jets, with RB Quinshon Judkins and DT Mason Graham on the injury report. Ranked at 8 because the quarterback is not settled until game day.

Market-implied win probability is 57% (Jaguars -2.5, moneyline -148) in London. Jacksonville is 4-1 and has allowed 70 points, second fewest in the league. Houston is 1-4 but beat Tennessee 26-3 and C.J. Stroud has not thrown an interception. Jacksonville was sloppy in the 19-17 win over Philadelphia (13 penalties), and Texans RB David Montgomery (groin) and OT Trent Brown (knee) did not practice.

Market-implied win probability is 57% (Seahawks -2.5, moneyline -144) on Thursday night. Seattle is 3-2 and scored 29 at San Francisco, but Sam Darnold has five interceptions in three games. Denver is 3-2 with the 28th-ranked offense and Bo Nix has struggled, and the Broncos will be without CB Pat Surtain II and S Talanoa Hufanga (both out), which is why this leans Seattle despite the turnovers.

Market-implied win probability is 56% (Steelers -2.5, moneyline -138). Pittsburgh is 3-2 and beat Indianapolis 34-22 with RB Jaylen Warren carrying the offense. Tampa Bay is 1-4 and snapped its skid behind Bucky Irving (165 yards) with rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Baker Mayfield (thumb) did not practice Wednesday and S Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib fracture) has not practiced. The risk is thin Steelers receiver depth (Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek out) and CB Jalen Ramsey (wrist), who did not practice.

Market-implied win probability is 59% (Bears -3, moneyline -162), but the quarterback picture is unsettled on both sides. Caleb Williams has a Grade 2 hamstring strain and the offense scored 7 at Green Bay without him, while Atlanta is 2-3 off an overtime loss with Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) listed as a full participant Wednesday. Chicago allows 19.2 points per game. Slotted low because of the quarterback uncertainty.

Market-implied win probability is 52% (Packers -1.5, moneyline -120). Green Bay is 3-2 and beat Chicago 31-7 behind Jordan Love and Christian Watson (143 yards, two touchdowns). Dallas is 2-3 with the 31st-ranked defense, but it scores 27.6 per game and CeeDee Lamb (thigh) was a full participant. A near coin flip, and the Wednesday report lists Micah Parsons out for the Packers.

Market-implied win probability is 52% (Saints -1.5, moneyline -117), a lean with the number. The records point the other way: New Orleans is 1-4 and has allowed 151 points, the most in the league, while the Giants are 3-1-1. The Giants are thin, with Jameis Winston starting for Jaxson Dart (out for the season) and OT Andrew Thomas (groin), CB Colton Hood and S Tyler Nubin on the injury report. Ranked second from the bottom for that reason.

A near pick-em: Philadelphia is a 1.5-point favorite at bet365 but books split on the moneyline. Carolina is 2-2 and coming off a bye. Philadelphia is 2-3 and lost 19-17 to Jacksonville after a late kickoff decision. RB Saquon Barkley and WR DeVonta Smith (both hamstring) did not practice Wednesday, and Lane Johnson has retired. Carolina is short at cornerback, which keeps this at 1 point.

Market-implied win probability is about 94% (Bulldogs -20.5, moneyline -1600). Georgia is the AP No. 1 team and Auburn is an unranked road underdog at +900.

Market-implied win probability is about 94% (Hurricanes -21.5, moneyline -1800). Miami is No. 3 in both polls and hosts an unranked Florida State at night.

Market-implied win probability is about 87% (Utes -15.5, moneyline -750). Utah is No. 11 and plays an unranked Colorado late Saturday.

Market-implied win probability is about 86% (Red Raiders -14.5, moneyline -700). Texas Tech is No. 10 and at home against an unranked Arizona State.

Market-implied win probability is about 80% (Longhorns -10.5, moneyline -440). Florida turned the ball over three times and allowed four passing touchdowns against South Carolina. Texas went just 3-for-14 on third down last week, so this stops at 12.

Market-implied win probability is about 79% (Irish -10.5, moneyline -395). Notre Dame has QB CJ Carr fourth nationally in QBR and averages 42.4 points against Power Four opponents. BYU is without RB LJ Martin, its best player. BYU is unbeaten and at home, which keeps this at 11 and not higher.

Market-implied win probability is about 84% (Tigers -14.5, moneyline -600). LSU lost in overtime at Kentucky last week and Mississippi State is rested off a bye with RB Kamario Taylor coming off 258 rushing yards, which is why this sits at 10 and not higher.

Market-implied win probability is about 77% (Demon Deacons -9.5, moneyline -360). Wake Forest is No. 21 and a road favorite late Saturday night.

Market-implied win probability is about 76% (Mustangs -9.5, moneyline -340). SMU is No. 24 and at home against an unranked Virginia.

Market-implied win probability is about 76% (Crimson Tide -8.5, moneyline -340). Alabama is on the road, was sacked four times by Georgia last week and is missing WR Ryan Coleman-Williams, so this is held at 7.

Market-implied win probability is about 74% (Wildcats -7.5, moneyline -310). Northwestern is No. 25 on the road against an unranked Michigan State, a team that lost 31-3 to Wisconsin.

Market-implied win probability is about 70% (Sooners -7, moneyline -258). Kentucky is No. 15 and beat LSU in overtime last week, with QB Kenny Minchey throwing for 246 yards and RB CJ Baxter running for 123 and two touchdowns. Oklahoma is the home favorite in a low-total game (43.5).

Market-implied win probability is about 66% (Rebels -6, moneyline -225). Missouri RB Jamal Roberts ran for 222 yards on 34 carries against Texas A&M, and the 58.5 total is high, so this is a closer game than the line suggests. Kewan Lacy is returning from injury for Ole Miss.

Market-implied win probability is about 64% (Cougars -4.5, moneyline -192). The 62.5 total is the highest on the board. Houston QB Conner Weigman threw for 242 yards against Kansas State.

Market-implied win probability is about 62% (Buckeyes -3.5, moneyline -180). Ohio State has allowed the lowest yards per attempt in FBS (4.76) and QB Julian Sayin has 17 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. Indiana is the reigning champion at home with Josh Hoover at 10.2 yards per attempt, so this is close to a coin flip with an edge to the better defense.

Market-implied win probability is about 57% (Bruins -2.5, moneyline -142), but UCLA lost QB Nico Iamaleava to a leg injury against Oregon (reportedly season-ending) and Ty Dieffenbach is the likely replacement. Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph accounted for all four touchdowns in a 31-3 win. UCLA is unbeaten, which is the only reason this is not the other side.

Market-implied win probability is about 83% (Texans -9.5, moneyline -500), the widest gap on the board. Houston beat Jacksonville 34-31 with C.J. Stroud at 312 yards and three touchdowns despite RB David Montgomery (groin) being out. The Giants benched Jameis Winston for J.J. McCarthy after losing to New Orleans.

Market-implied win probability is about 72% (Vikings -6.5, moneyline -290) coming off their bye. Indianapolis lost 26-20 to Tennessee with two Daniel Jones interceptions, a Jonathan Taylor fumble and a blocked punt returned for a touchdown.

Market-implied win probability is about 68% (Jets -4.5, moneyline -245). Miami is winless and coming off its bye. The Jets lost 26-19 to New England with several failed fourth-down tries and Geno Smith's first interception, and RB Breece Hall has not practiced since a quad injury, so this stops at 12.

Market-implied win probability is about 66% (Cowboys -4.5, moneyline -220) on Monday night. Philadelphia has lost four straight, QB Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve with blood clots, and Tanner McKee went 26-of-45 in the 25-14 loss to Carolina. Dallas threw two interceptions in a 23-13 loss at Green Bay, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) could return.

Market-implied win probability is about 67% (Rams -4.5, moneyline -230). Capped at 10 after a 14-point miss last week: the Rams are 2-4 and lost 18-16 to Arizona with a stalled offense and an injured kicker. Las Vegas lost 33-30 to Buffalo.

Market-implied win probability is about 66% (Broncos -4.5, moneyline -230). Denver beat Seattle 17-14 in overtime but has questions on offense. Arizona upset the Rams 18-16 behind six Chad Ryland field goals, so this stays at 9.

Market-implied win probability is about 61% (Panthers -3.5, moneyline -181). Carolina beat Philadelphia 25-14 with Bryce Young at 281 yards and two touchdowns and Chuba Hubbard at 120 rushing yards. Tampa Bay threw two interceptions with Jalon Daniels in overtime against Pittsburgh, and Baker Mayfield (thumb) was scheduled to practice Wednesday.

Market-implied win probability is about 61% (Steelers -3.5, moneyline -182) in Paris, a neutral site. Pittsburgh came back from 13 down to beat Tampa Bay in overtime. New Orleans beat the Giants 34-27 but lost WR Rashid Shaheed for the season.

Market-implied win probability is about 60% (49ers -3.5, moneyline -174). San Francisco beat Washington 23-17 on Monday night, so this is a short week on the road. Atlanta lost 31-23 to Chicago with five Michael Penix Jr. sacks, a muffed punt and a fumble.

Market-implied win probability is about 59% (Lions -3.5, moneyline -170) coming off their bye. Green Bay beat Dallas 23-13 behind Jordan Love's 276 yards. The 53.5 total is the highest on the board, so this is a close game that could be decided late.

Market-implied win probability is about 58% (Bears -2.5, moneyline -162) on Thursday night. Caleb Williams returned from a hamstring injury to throw for 305 yards on 30-of-36 against Atlanta. New England beat the Jets 26-19 behind Drake Maye's two first-half touchdowns, but the line has moved toward Chicago on injuries to the Patriots offensive line.

Market-implied win probability for Seattle is about 55% (Seahawks -2.5, moneyline -140), so this is a near pick-em on Sunday night. Kansas City is 5-0 and beat the Chargers 22-6, with Kenneth Walker III at 128 yards and two touchdowns. Seattle lost 17-14 in overtime at Denver and Sam Darnold's turnovers keep showing up. Kicker Harrison Butker missed several kicks in the wind, which keeps this at 3.

Market-implied win probability is about 57% (Ravens -2.5, moneyline -152). Lamar Jackson is day-to-day and may not play, and Baltimore managed only 235 yards in the 13-10 loss at Cleveland. Cincinnati is coming off its bye. The unsettled quarterback caps this at 2.

Market-implied win probability is about 53% (Browns -1.5, moneyline -126), a near pick-em with a total of 36.5 to 38.5. Cleveland beat Baltimore 13-10 on a late Deshaun Watson drive. Tennessee is 1-5 and beat Indianapolis on special teams and turnovers while Cam Ward threw for 102 yards.

Market-implied win probability is about 95% (Hurricanes -23.5, moneyline -2400). Miami is No. 1 in the AP poll and QB Darian Mensah threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns in the last game. Pittsburgh lost QB Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL and true freshman Corey Dailey started, going 11-of-25 with two interceptions.

Market-implied win probability is about 90% (Wildcats -16.5, moneyline -1000). Northwestern is No. 24 and beat Michigan State 24-21. The 58.5 total is high for a 16.5-point spread, since Rutgers has WR KJ Duff at 741 receiving yards.

Market-implied win probability is about 88% (Mustangs -17.5, moneyline -800). SMU is No. 23 and beat Virginia 23-13. California lost 41-7 at Wake Forest.

Market-implied win probability is about 85% (Broncos -14, moneyline -650). Boise State is No. 21 and RB Dylan Riley has 835 rushing yards at 6.6 per carry. It is a road game, which is why it is not higher.

Market-implied win probability is about 80% (Red Raiders -11.5, moneyline -425). Texas Tech is No. 8 and just beat Arizona State 53-25.

Market-implied win probability is about 80% (Wildcats -11.5, moneyline -470). Kentucky is No. 12 and beat Oklahoma 21-13 while winning the turnover battle 4-0, which is a result that can be hard to repeat.

Market-implied win probability is about 78% (Wildcats -10, moneyline -395). Arizona is No. 25 and QB Noah Fifita has 1,739 passing yards and 16 touchdowns.

Market-implied win probability is about 84% (Bruins -13.5, moneyline -535), but UCLA is playing without QB Nico Iamaleava, who is out for the season. Ty Dieffenbach beat Wisconsin 17-7 and Michigan State lost 24-21 to Northwestern, so this is held at 10.

Market-implied win probability is about 86% (Crimson Tide -15.5, moneyline -675), but Alabama has lost two straight, including 26-10 at Tennessee. Held at 9 until the offense shows it has recovered.

Market-implied win probability is about 76% (Hoosiers -8.5, moneyline -325). Indiana is No. 6 and lost 19-15 to Ohio State, with QB Josh Hoover going 20-of-40 for 296 yards and no interceptions. This is a road game against a rival.

Market-implied win probability is about 74% (Cougars -7.5, moneyline -310). BYU is now No. 2 after beating Notre Dame 28-24, but RB LJ Martin is out. This is a road game after an emotional win.

Market-implied win probability is about 70% (Tigers -6.5, moneyline -245). LSU shut out Mississippi State 31-0, but Auburn just beat Georgia 27-24 on a last-second field goal and is at home with that momentum.

Market-implied win probability is about 66% (Utes -6.5, moneyline -225). Utah is No. 10 and beat Colorado 27-24. Houston is No. 14 after a 35-32 win over Oklahoma State, with QB Conner Weigman at 20 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Market-implied win probability is about 66% (Hawkeyes -5.5, moneyline -205) in a low-total game (41.5), which leaves a lot of room for variance. Iowa is No. 15.

Market-implied win probability for Texas is about 58% (Longhorns -3, moneyline -162), so this is close. Ole Miss is No. 7 and QB Trinidad Chambliss threw for 241 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-3 win over Missouri. Texas is No. 19 after blowing a 17-3 lead against Florida and Arch Manning being strip-sacked late, and Steve Sarkisian said everything is being evaluated.

Market-implied win probability is about 55% (Volunteers -2.5, moneyline -135), a near pick-em on the road. Tennessee is No. 11 after beating Alabama 26-10 behind its defense.

Market-implied win probability is about 55% (Trojans -2.5, moneyline -130), a near pick-em on the road. USC is No. 16 and QB Jayden Maiava has 2,045 passing yards, but Wisconsin QB Colton Joseph accounted for all four touchdowns in a 31-3 win earlier this season.