← Back to Third Down AI
All Picks
Every prediction we've made, logged before kickoff, with the reasoning behind it. Hits, misses, and pushes -- nothing held back.
NFL Week 2 — This week
Denver backfield vs Jaguars, DEN
Denver totals under 90 rushing yards as a team
MISS
Result: Denver rushed for 104 yards as a team, over the 90-yard threshold, despite RJ Harvey's hamstring issue.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Leads Patriots RBs in touches even with Henderson active
PENDING
Mansoor Delane, KC
Plays a real defensive role Sunday night vs. Indianapolis
HIT
Result: Delane was cleared and active for the game after being a full participant in practice mid-week, playing through the shoulder injury as expected.
Philadelphia offensive line vs Tennessee
Eagles allow 2+ sacks vs. Tennessee
HIT
Result: Eagles allowed 3 sacks, clearing the 2+ threshold -- the Landon Dickerson absence on the interior line showed up as expected.
NY Giants at LA Rams
Giants beat the Rams outright on the road
PENDING
CFB Week 3 — This week
Texas Tech vs Houston
Texas Tech wins by 10+ points
MISS
Result: Texas Tech won, but only by 2 (28-26) -- far short of the 10+ point margin called. Houston was more competitive than expected.
Ohio State vs Kent State
Ohio State wins by 40+ points
HIT
Result: Ohio State won 59-3, a 56-point margin -- well clear of the 40+ threshold.
Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Throws 3+ TD passes at Arkansas
MISS
Result: Stockton threw just 1 TD pass himself (a 61-yard strike to Dandridge) -- Georgia's other passing TD came from backup QB R.Puglisi in Q4 garbage time. Georgia's scoring was rushing-heavy (4 rushing TDs) instead.
Malachi Toney, Miami
Records a receiving TD at Wake Forest
HIT
Result: Toney caught a 2-yard TD pass from D.Mensah in the 3rd quarter.
Arch Manning, Texas
Throws for 250+ yards with no interceptions vs UTSA
MISS
Result: Manning threw for only 172 yards, well under the 250 threshold -- though he did clear the no-interception half of the call (0 INTs on 35 attempts).
NFL Week 1 — Final
Packers backfield vs Vikings, GB
Total under 100 rushing yards as a team
HIT
Result: Green Bay rushed for just 66 yards as a team.
Chargers defense vs Cardinals, LAC
Chargers allow 100+ rushing yards to Arizona
HIT
Result: Arizona rushed for 116 yards as a team.
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
Receives at least 5 targets in the Giants' opener vs. Dallas
MISS
Result: Beckham finished with zero targets -- Malik Nabers being active pushed him down the depth chart more than expected.
Joey Porter Jr., PIT
Plays in Week 1 vs. Atlanta despite contract dispute
MISS
Result: Porter was officially inactive for the game (back injury) and never took the field.
Ashton Jeanty, LV
Leads all RBs in the game in rushing yards vs. Miami
HIT
Result: Jeanty led all RBs in the game with 102 rushing yards (147 total, 2 TD) -- Miami's backs managed only 65 rushing yards outside of scrambles.
Kenneth Walker III, KC
Leads all Chiefs RBs in rushing yards in his Chiefs debut vs. Denver
HIT
Result: Walker broke a 60-yard rushing touchdown in his Chiefs debut, clearly the feature back (KC rushed for 220 yards as a team).
CFB Week 2 — This week
Arch Manning, Texas
Throws at least 1 interception vs. Ohio State
HIT
Result: Manning threw 1 interception in the 4th quarter comeback; Texas won 24-23.
Oregon at Oklahoma State
Oregon wins by one score (8 points or fewer)
HIT
Result: Final margin was exactly 8 points, Oklahoma State won 39-31.
Iowa vs Iowa State
Combined score stays under 45 points
HIT
Result: Combined 29 points, well under the 45-point threshold.
Oklahoma at Michigan
Game is within one score in the 4th quarter
HIT
Result: Final margin was 7 points, Michigan won 17-10.
Sam Leavitt, LSU
Throws for 300+ yards vs. Louisiana Tech
CORRECTED
Result: This prediction named the wrong player -- Garrett Nussmeier is not LSU's starting QB this season, Sam Leavitt is. Leavitt threw for 381 yards and 3 total TDs in the 45-14 win. Voided, not graded, since the premise itself was factually wrong.
CFB Week 0 — Final
Florida State defense vs New Mexico State
Florida State records at least 3 sacks
HIT
Result: FSU won 34-17 and recorded exactly 3 sacks to New Mexico State's 1 -- meeting the threshold exactly, with a key sack ending an Aggies scoring drive.
North Carolina @ TCU (Dublin)
Total goes UNDER in Dublin
HIT
Result: UNC won 15-10, a combined 25 points decided by a safety on a botched punt, missed field goals, and multiple turnovers on downs -- exactly the low-scoring, mistake-prone slog the reasoning called for.
NFL Preseason Week 3 — Final
Fernando Mendoza, LV vs 49ers
Completes at least 60% of his passes in the preseason finale
MISS
Result: Went 7-of-14 (50%) for 57 yards and an interception, capping a rough preseason (25-of-45, 55.5%, 2 INT, 4 sacks across three games).
Cedric Tillman, CLE
Does not make the Browns' initial 53-man roster
HIT
Result: The Browns waived Tillman at cutdown, per Adam Schefter -- rookies Concepcion and Boston plus Tylan Wallace buried him, and an undisclosed camp injury sealed it.
KC Concepcion, CLE vs Patriots
Leads all Browns WRs in yards from scrimmage
PUSH
Result: Concepcion didn't play in this game at all -- he appeared in just 1 of Cleveland's 3 preseason games, and his earlier 27-yard line was from the Week 1 opener, not this one.
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
Does not make the Giants' initial 53-man roster
MISS
Result: Beckham made the 53 -- one of five receivers kept. The reasoning was sound on the depth chart alone, but Calvin Austin III's season-ending knee injury right before cuts changed the math in a way we couldn't have known.
Chris Braswell, TB
Does not make the Buccaneers' initial 53-man roster
HIT
Result: The Buccaneers waived Braswell at cutdown -- he never cracked the starting lineup in three seasons, playing under 30% of defensive snaps.
NFL Preseason Week 2 — Final
Bo Nix, DEN vs Packers
Nix completes at least 65% of his passes in his preseason debut
HIT
Result: Nix went 6-of-9 (66.7%) for 76 yards and a TD across two drives, a 129.9 passer rating in his return from ankle surgery.
Aaron Rodgers, PIT vs Jets
Rodgers leads the Steelers to a scoring drive on his opening series
PUSH
Result: Rodgers sat out for a second straight preseason game. The premise never got tested.
Cardinals backfield vs Cowboys
Tyler Allgeier leads the Cardinals backfield in touches
PUSH
Result: Allgeier didn't play at all -- absent from the box score entirely. No backfield-touches battle to grade.
Browns WR room vs Bills
Jerry Jeudy leads the Browns' wide receiver group in targets
MISS
Result: Jeudy made a brief cameo and finished with zero targets -- the least action of anyone in the room.
Seahawks RB battle vs Titans
Jadarian Price leads the Price/Holani/Wilson group in touches
PUSH
Result: Seattle held out all three players in the call. Carries went to Jacardia Wright, Velus Jones Jr., and Anthony Hankerson instead -- none of whom were part of the prediction.
NFL Preseason Week 1 — Final
Anthony Richardson vs Riley Leonard, IND
Richardson outplays Leonard (completion % or QBR)
HIT
Result: Richardson went 11/14 (78.6%) with a rush TD; Leonard went 10/21 (47.6%) with an INT.
Terrell Jennings, NE
Jennings does NOT make the Patriots' 53-man roster
HIT
Result: Jennings was placed on season-ending IR just before the opener.
TreVeyon Henderson vs Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Henderson out-touches Stevenson in preseason Week 1
MISS
Result: Stevenson was the clear lead back with 128 scrimmage yards.
David Moore, CAR WR3 group
David Moore leads the WR3 group in targets
MISS
Result: Jimmy Horn Jr. led instead, 4 catches to Moore's 1.
Bo Nix, DEN (Week 1)
Nix plays under 10 snaps in the Broncos preseason opener
PUSH
Result: Nix didn't play at all -- 0 snaps technically clears "under 10," but the reasoning assumed some participation, not a full scratch.
Charlie Kolar vs David Njoku, LAC
Kolar outscores Njoku in the Chargers preseason opener
PUSH
Result: Neither player suited up -- the premise never got tested.