NFL Week 6 — This week
LA Chargers offense at Kansas City
Chargers score 20 points or fewer
HITResult: Kansas City won 22-6. The Chargers scored 6 points, with an injury-depleted offensive line struggling to run or protect Justin Herbert.
Tennessee offense at Indianapolis
Titans score 20 points or fewer
MISSResult: Tennessee won 26-20, so the Titans scored 26. A blocked punt return touchdown and defensive turnovers drove the scoring while Cam Ward threw for only 102 yards. The call counted team points, so it is a miss.
CFB Week 6 — Final
Georgia at Alabama
Combined score over 52 points
MISSResult: Georgia won 20-17, 37 combined points, 15 short of the 52 called.
DeSean Bishop (Tennessee) at Arkansas
Bishop rushes for 90+ yards
HITResult: Bishop ran 19 times for 138 yards in Tennessee 24, Arkansas 17.
Holden Geriner (Pittsburgh) vs North Carolina
Geriner throws for under 200 yards
MISSResult: Geriner went 27 of 44 for 219 yards with two interceptions, above the 200 yard line.
Stanford at Notre Dame
Notre Dame wins by 35 or more
HITResult: Notre Dame won 58-7, a 51 point margin.
UCLA at Oregon
UCLA loses by 10 or fewer, or wins
HITResult: UCLA won outright, 17-15 over Oregon.
NFL Week 5 — Final
Dallas offense vs Tampa Bay
Cowboys score 28+ points
MISSResult: Dallas scored 16 in a 24-16 loss to Tampa Bay, 12 points short of the 28+ called. Three turnovers and a Tampa Bay run game that gained 241 yards limited the offense to 20:39 of possession.
Tennessee offense vs Houston
Titans score 20 points or fewer
HITResult: Tennessee scored 3 points in a 26-3 loss to Houston.
Miami offense vs Cincinnati
Dolphins score 17 points or fewer
MISSResult: Miami scored 24 in a 31-24 loss to Cincinnati, 7 more than the 17 points the call allowed. 14 of those came in the fourth quarter.
CFB Week 5 — Final
Notre Dame at UNC
Irish win by 21+ points
MISSResult: Notre Dame won, but only by 11 (37-26), not the 21+ margin called.
SMU vs Boston College
Mustangs win by 21+ points
MISSResult: SMU won, but only by 9 (25-16), not the 21+ margin called.
Houston vs UCF
Cougars win by double digits
HITResult: Houston won 27-17, a 10-point margin -- exactly double digits.
Alabama at Mississippi State
Game decided by one score (8 or fewer)
MISSResult: Alabama won by 33 (56-23), nowhere close to a one-score game.
Iowa defense vs Ohio State
Holds Ohio State under 24 points
MISSResult: Ohio State scored 31 in a 31-14 win, well over the 24-point threshold.
NFL Week 4 — Final
Derrick Henry, BAL
Records 2+ rushing TDs vs Tennessee
MISSResult: Henry had just 1 rushing TD (a 5-yard score in the 1st quarter), not the 2+ called. Baltimore still won 24-18.
Jalon Daniels, TB
Throws for fewer than 180 yards in his first start
HITResult: Daniels threw for 148 yards (19-of-27, 2 INT) in his first career start, under the 180-yard threshold. Tampa Bay lost 14-17.
Buffalo passing offense vs New England
Bills pass for 280+ yards
MISSResult: Buffalo passed for 253 yards, short of the 280+ called. Drake Maye and New England won the game outright, 29-26.
Puka Nacua, LA
Under 60 receiving yards vs Philadelphia
MISSResult: Nacua caught 9 of 12 targets for 125 yards in his return from injury, more than double the 60-yard ceiling called.
Detroit passing offense vs Carolina
Lions throw 2+ passing TDs
MISSResult: Detroit threw only 1 passing TD (Goff to LaPorta, 8 yards), not the 2+ called, despite Carolina's thin secondary. Detroit lost the game 26-32.
CFB Week 4 — Final
Arch Manning, Texas
Accounts for 3+ total touchdowns at Tennessee
MISSResult: Texas's only two touchdowns were rushing scores by R. Brown. Manning had no touchdown passes, so he finished with zero total TDs in Texas's 20-17 win at Tennessee, a game with 16 combined sacks.
Jayden Maiava, USC
Throws for 300+ yards vs Oregon
HITResult: Maiava threw for 326 yards (23-of-42) with two TD passes and a rushing TD, in a 41-27 loss to Oregon.
Sam Leavitt, LSU
Commits a turnover (INT or fumble) vs Texas A&M
HITResult: Leavitt was intercepted once (by Marcus Ratcliffe in the third quarter) while throwing for 312 yards and two TDs in LSU's 35-6 win.
Iowa defense vs Michigan
Holds Michigan under 20 points
HITResult: Iowa held Michigan to 19 points in a 20-19 road win.
Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss
Throws 2+ TD passes at Florida
MISSResult: Chambliss threw one TD pass (2 yards to D. Alexander), ending a three-game streak of 2+ TD passes (3, 2, 2). He also ran for two TDs in a 52-28 loss at Florida.
NFL Week 3 — Final
Jameis Winston, NYG
Throws for 200+ yards in his first start replacing Dart
MISSResult: Winston started in place of Jaxson Dart (season-ending knee injury) but threw for just 118 yards (14-of-22, no TDs, no INTs) in a 12-7 win in rainy, windy conditions. The Giants leaned on the run and four field goals.
TreVeyon Henderson, NE
Leads Patriots RBs in touches, not Stevenson
MISSResult: Henderson led the Patriots' backs in carries (8 to 7) and rushing yards (23 to 22), but Stevenson had more total touches: 10 (7 carries, 3 catches) to Henderson's 9 (8 carries, 1 catch), in a 35-6 loss. A one-touch miss, decided by receptions.
Seattle at Washington
Seahawks win by 14+ points
MISSResult: Seattle lost 33-31 at Washington, so the 14+ point margin call missed entirely.
Davante Adams, LA
Records a receiving TD vs Denver
MISSResult: Adams did not score. The Rams' two receiving TDs went to T. Higbee (5 yards) and K. Mumpfield (48 yards) in a 30-26 loss at Denver.
Atlanta pass defense vs Green Bay
Falcons allow 2+ passing TDs
HITResult: Green Bay threw exactly two TD passes (J. Love to C. Watson for 4 yards and to M. Golden for 15). Atlanta still won 35-14, mostly on the ground.
Philadelphia at Chicago
Eagles win by 14+ points
MISSResult: Eagles lost outright, 7-27 -- not just missing the 14+ margin, but losing by 20. Keenum threw for 247 yards and 2 TDs; Chicago's defense forced 3 takeaways off Hurts.
NFL Week 2 — Final
Denver backfield vs Jaguars, DEN
Denver totals under 90 rushing yards as a team
MISSResult: Denver rushed for 104 yards as a team, over the 90-yard threshold, despite RJ Harvey's hamstring issue.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Leads Patriots RBs in touches even with Henderson active
MISSResult: Henderson dominated the touch share in his season debut, not Stevenson -- 16 carries for 76 yards and a TD to Stevenson's 6 carries for 43 yards. New England won 20-3.
Mansoor Delane, KC
Plays a real defensive role Sunday night vs. Indianapolis
HITResult: Delane was cleared and active for the game after being a full participant in practice mid-week, playing through the shoulder injury as expected.
Philadelphia offensive line vs Tennessee
Eagles allow 2+ sacks vs. Tennessee
HITResult: Eagles allowed 3 sacks, clearing the 2+ threshold -- the Landon Dickerson absence on the interior line showed up as expected.
NY Giants at LA Rams
Giants beat the Rams outright on the road
MISSResult: The Giants lost badly on the road, 6-28, in a Monday Night Football blowout.
CFB Week 3 — Final
Texas Tech vs Houston
Texas Tech wins by 10+ points
MISSResult: Texas Tech won, but only by 2 (28-26) -- far short of the 10+ point margin called. Houston was more competitive than expected.
Ohio State vs Kent State
Ohio State wins by 40+ points
HITResult: Ohio State won 59-3, a 56-point margin -- well clear of the 40+ threshold.
Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Throws 3+ TD passes at Arkansas
MISSResult: Stockton threw just 1 TD pass himself (a 61-yard strike to Dandridge) -- Georgia's other passing TD came from backup QB R.Puglisi in Q4 garbage time. Georgia's scoring was rushing-heavy (4 rushing TDs) instead.
Malachi Toney, Miami
Records a receiving TD at Wake Forest
HITResult: Toney caught a 2-yard TD pass from D.Mensah in the 3rd quarter.
Arch Manning, Texas
Throws for 250+ yards with no interceptions vs UTSA
MISSResult: Manning threw for only 172 yards, well under the 250 threshold -- though he did clear the no-interception half of the call (0 INTs on 35 attempts).
NFL Week 1 — Final
Packers backfield vs Vikings, GB
Total under 100 rushing yards as a team
HITResult: Green Bay rushed for just 66 yards as a team.
Chargers defense vs Cardinals, LAC
Chargers allow 100+ rushing yards to Arizona
HITResult: Arizona rushed for 116 yards as a team.
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
Receives at least 5 targets in the Giants' opener vs. Dallas
MISSResult: Beckham finished with zero targets -- Malik Nabers being active pushed him down the depth chart more than expected.
Joey Porter Jr., PIT
Plays in Week 1 vs. Atlanta despite contract dispute
MISSResult: Porter was officially inactive for the game (back injury) and never took the field.
Ashton Jeanty, LV
Leads all RBs in the game in rushing yards vs. Miami
HITResult: Jeanty led all RBs in the game with 102 rushing yards (147 total, 2 TD) -- Miami's backs managed only 65 rushing yards outside of scrambles.
Kenneth Walker III, KC
Leads all Chiefs RBs in rushing yards in his Chiefs debut vs. Denver
HITResult: Walker broke a 60-yard rushing touchdown in his Chiefs debut, clearly the feature back (KC rushed for 220 yards as a team).
CFB Week 2 — Final
Arch Manning, Texas
Throws at least 1 interception vs. Ohio State
HITResult: Manning threw 1 interception in the 4th quarter comeback; Texas won 24-23.
Oregon at Oklahoma State
Oregon wins by one score (8 points or fewer)
HITResult: Final margin was exactly 8 points, Oklahoma State won 39-31.
Iowa vs Iowa State
Combined score stays under 45 points
HITResult: Combined 29 points, well under the 45-point threshold.
Oklahoma at Michigan
Game is within one score in the 4th quarter
HITResult: Final margin was 7 points, Michigan won 17-10.
Sam Leavitt, LSU
Throws for 300+ yards vs. Louisiana Tech
CORRECTEDResult: This prediction named the wrong player -- Garrett Nussmeier is not LSU's starting QB this season, Sam Leavitt is. Leavitt threw for 381 yards and 3 total TDs in the 45-14 win. Voided, not graded, since the premise itself was factually wrong.
CFB Week 0 — Final
Florida State defense vs New Mexico State
Florida State records at least 3 sacks
HITResult: FSU won 34-17 and recorded exactly 3 sacks to New Mexico State's 1 -- meeting the threshold exactly, with a key sack ending an Aggies scoring drive.
North Carolina @ TCU (Dublin)
Total goes UNDER in Dublin
HITResult: UNC won 15-10, a combined 25 points decided by a safety on a botched punt, missed field goals, and multiple turnovers on downs -- exactly the low-scoring, mistake-prone slog the reasoning called for.
NFL Preseason Week 3 — Final
Fernando Mendoza, LV vs 49ers
Completes at least 60% of his passes in the preseason finale
MISSResult: Went 7-of-14 (50%) for 57 yards and an interception, capping a rough preseason (25-of-45, 55.5%, 2 INT, 4 sacks across three games).
Cedric Tillman, CLE
Does not make the Browns' initial 53-man roster
HITResult: The Browns waived Tillman at cutdown, per Adam Schefter -- rookies Concepcion and Boston plus Tylan Wallace buried him, and an undisclosed camp injury sealed it.
KC Concepcion, CLE vs Patriots
Leads all Browns WRs in yards from scrimmage
PUSHResult: Concepcion didn't play in this game at all -- he appeared in just 1 of Cleveland's 3 preseason games, and his earlier 27-yard line was from the Week 1 opener, not this one.
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG
Does not make the Giants' initial 53-man roster
MISSResult: Beckham made the 53 -- one of five receivers kept. The reasoning was sound on the depth chart alone, but Calvin Austin III's season-ending knee injury right before cuts changed the math in a way we couldn't have known.
Chris Braswell, TB
Does not make the Buccaneers' initial 53-man roster
HITResult: The Buccaneers waived Braswell at cutdown -- he never cracked the starting lineup in three seasons, playing under 30% of defensive snaps.
NFL Preseason Week 2 — Final
Bo Nix, DEN vs Packers
Nix completes at least 65% of his passes in his preseason debut
HITResult: Nix went 6-of-9 (66.7%) for 76 yards and a TD across two drives, a 129.9 passer rating in his return from ankle surgery.
Aaron Rodgers, PIT vs Jets
Rodgers leads the Steelers to a scoring drive on his opening series
PUSHResult: Rodgers sat out for a second straight preseason game. The premise never got tested.
Cardinals backfield vs Cowboys
Tyler Allgeier leads the Cardinals backfield in touches
PUSHResult: Allgeier didn't play at all -- absent from the box score entirely. No backfield-touches battle to grade.
Browns WR room vs Bills
Jerry Jeudy leads the Browns' wide receiver group in targets
MISSResult: Jeudy made a brief cameo and finished with zero targets -- the least action of anyone in the room.
Seahawks RB battle vs Titans
Jadarian Price leads the Price/Holani/Wilson group in touches
PUSHResult: Seattle held out all three players in the call. Carries went to Jacardia Wright, Velus Jones Jr., and Anthony Hankerson instead -- none of whom were part of the prediction.
NFL Preseason Week 1 — Final
Anthony Richardson vs Riley Leonard, IND
Richardson outplays Leonard (completion % or QBR)
HITResult: Richardson went 11/14 (78.6%) with a rush TD; Leonard went 10/21 (47.6%) with an INT.
Terrell Jennings, NE
Jennings does NOT make the Patriots' 53-man roster
HITResult: Jennings was placed on season-ending IR just before the opener.
TreVeyon Henderson vs Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Henderson out-touches Stevenson in preseason Week 1
MISSResult: Stevenson was the clear lead back with 128 scrimmage yards.
David Moore, CAR WR3 group
David Moore leads the WR3 group in targets
MISSResult: Jimmy Horn Jr. led instead, 4 catches to Moore's 1.
Bo Nix, DEN (Week 1)
Nix plays under 10 snaps in the Broncos preseason opener
PUSHResult: Nix didn't play at all -- 0 snaps technically clears "under 10," but the reasoning assumed some participation, not a full scratch.
Charlie Kolar vs David Njoku, LAC
Kolar outscores Njoku in the Chargers preseason opener
PUSHResult: Neither player suited up -- the premise never got tested.